An emergent path of the six-party talks: Toward institutional multilateralism in northeast Asia

This article examines the potential of the Six-Party Talks (SPTs) and the prospects of their transformation into a multilateral security mechanism in Northeast Asia. This article draws on the concepts of “path dependence” and “path emergence” as theoretical underpinnings. The concept of path dependence is employed to explain the viability of the SPTs, whereas the concept of path emergence is elaborated upon to explain the causes underlying the emergent path of the six-party process. Path dependence of the SPTs is explained by various mechanisms centered on utilitarian, functionalist, power-centered and legitimate approach. Meanwhile, path emergence of the SPTs is figured out in terms of morphogenetic fields, social resonance, self-organized criticality and co-evolution. The path dependence perspective strongly supports the proposition that the SPTs will be institutionally instrumental even in the future. The path emergence perspective suggests that the dynamics of self-organized criticality triggered by the dire political and economic situation in North Koreamay drive the North to come back to the negotiation table in the future. Once the six-party process is resumed and the North Korean nuclear issue is resolved, the SPTswill be an institutional vehicle for a Northeast Asian security mechanism. The coevolution of the SPTs into a Northeast Asian security mechanism will have a profound effect on security relations in Northeast Asia. This situation could spell out the potential for ushering in a Eurasia era in which the Korean peninsula could emerge as a bridge between Asia and Europe.