Risk of Metachronous Colorectal Advanced Neoplasia and Cancer in Patients with 3-4 Nonadvanced Adenomas at Index Colonoscopy: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

INTRODUCTION:This systematic review and meta-analysis evaluated the available evidence on the risk of metachronous advanced neoplasia (AN) and colorectal cancer (CRC) in patients with 3-4 nonadvanced adenomas (NAAs).METHODS:We searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, and Cochrane Library databases up to January 2021 for studies evaluating metachronous AN and CRC risk by comparing 3 groups (1-2 vs 3-4 vs ≥5 NAAs) at index colonoscopy. The estimates for risk of metachronous AN and CRC were evaluated using random-effects models.RESULTS:Fifteen studies (n = 36,375) were included. The risk of metachronous AN was significantly higher in the 3-4 NAAs group than in the 1-2 NAAs group (relative risk [RR] 1.264, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.053-1.518, P = 0.012; I²= 0%); there was no difference between the ≥ 5 NAAs and 3-4 NAAs groups (RR 1.962, 95% CI 0.972-3.958, P = 0.060; I²= 68%). The risks of metachronous CRC between the 1-2 NAAs and 3-4 NAAs groups (RR 2.663, 95% CI 0.391-18.128, P = 0.317; I²= 0%) or the 3-4 NAAs and ≥ 5 NAAs groups (RR 1.148, 95% CI 0.142-9.290, P = 0.897; I²= 0%) were not significantly different.DISCUSSION:Although the risk of metachronous AN was greater in the 3-4 NAAs group than in the 1-2 NAAs group, the risk of metachronous AN and CRC between the 3-4 NAAs and ≥ 5 NAAs groups was not different. This suggests that further studies on metachronous AN and CRC risk in the 3-4 NAAs group are warranted to confirm a firm ≥5-year interval surveillance colonoscopy.