The use of Markov chains to estimate destination switching and market share

The Markov chain model provides researchers and policy makers with a means to predict travellers' choices of destination. This study predicts international tourist flows among three Asian countries and the USA, and provides a path for gauging the switching patterns of tourists from one country to another. Destination loyalty (hard core component) and the future market share for 2009 and 2010 were estimated. The findings provide necessary information to many interest groups, including government policy makers, travel companies, airline companies and researchers.