Triglyceride-glucose index predicts future metabolic syndrome in an adult population, Korea: a prospective cohort study

Purpose: The triglyceride-glucose (TyG) index has been proposed as a reliable surrogate marker for insulin resistance. This study aimed to assess the utility of the TyG index in predicting the future presence of metabolic syndrome (MetS) in an adult population. Methods: A total of 3,241 adults aged 40–70 years were included in this cross-sectional study. MetS was diagnosed based on the modified National Cholesterol Education Program Adult Treatment Panel III criteria, which requires the presence of at least three of the following components: abdominal obesity, elevated blood pressure, dysglycemia, hypertriglyceridemia, and low high-density lipoprotein cholesterol. Results: In comparison to the homeostasis model assessment of insulin resistance (HOMA-IR), the TyG index exhibited superior diagnostic performance, with a higher area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.854 vs. 0.702 for HOMA-IR. The 95% confidence interval for the TyG index was narrower, reflecting a more consistent predictive ability. Sensitivity for the TyG index was 79.7%, while specificity was 79.3%, compared to HOMA-IR, which showed a sensitivity of 52.7% and specificity of 78.3%. Conclusion: The TyG index is a highly effective and robust tool for identifying individuals at risk for MetS, demonstrating superior sensitivity and predictive accuracy over HOMA-IR. This index could be a valuable clinical marker for early detection of MetS, aiding in the prevention and management of associated metabolic disorders.